📊 This weeks update comes with a twist. The Fed just cut rates, yet mortgage rates ticked higher to 6.22%. Strange, right? It’s a reminder that rates don’t always follow the Fed — they follow the bond market’s reaction to Powell’s words.

The good news? Even with today’s bump, rates are still among the best we’ve seen in the past year. So whether you’re buying or selling, the question isn’t “are rates high?” but “how do today’s rates impact my timing and strategy?”

Table of Contents

• What Just Happened?

• The Bigger Picture 📊

• Why It Matters for You

  • Key Takeaway 💡

• Want Clarity on Your Options?

What Just Happened?

The Federal Reserve cut rates today — so why are mortgage rates higher this afternoon? 🤔

Here’s the thing most people don’t realize (and it trips up almost everyone I talk to): the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. A Fed rate cut only lowers the overnight rate that banks charge each other — not the 30-year fixed that buyers care about.

So why does everyone watch the Fed like it’s the only game in town? Because investors in the bond market are really the ones holding the steering wheel. They react not just to what the Fed does, but to what the Fed says. It’s less about the cut itself and more about the idea of what future cuts mean for inflation, growth, and risk. 📉➡️📈

That’s why today, even though the Fed cut, Jerome Powell’s cautious tone spooked the bond market… and mortgage rates actually ticked up.

Here’s what Powell said that shook the markets:

• He called today’s move a “risk management” cut, signaling caution more than confidence.

• The Fed’s dot plot showed two possible cuts in 2025 — but he stressed that’s not a promise.

• And Powell made clear there’s no consensus for a bigger (0.50%) cut

👉 Bottom line: The bond market didn’t buy into a straight path down. Mortgage lenders re-priced mid-day, and rates ended higher than yesterday, not lower.

The Bigger Picture 📊

Now, take a look at this graph:

Even with today’s small bump, mortgage rates are still near the best levels we’ve seen in the past year.

For buyers 🏡 — that means greater affordability compared to most of the past 12 months.

For sellers 📈 — it means more qualified buyers are still in the market, supporting steady demand.

Rather than focusing on the daily ups and downs, it’s worth looking at how today’s rates shape your next steps in the months ahead.

Why It Matters for You

For Buyers:

• Higher rates increase monthly payments — but dips can appear suddenly.

• Quick action during those dips may secure better affordability.

For Sellers:

• Buyer demand often softens when rates rise.

• Pricing and positioning matter more than ever to attract motivated buyers.

Key Takeaway 💡

Fed cuts don’t guarantee lower mortgage rates — the bond market calls the shots. And right now, Powell’s words pushed rates up. But step back and you’ll see: we’re still in one of the best rate environments in the past year.

Want Clarity on Your Options?

If you’re wondering what today’s 6.22% rate really means for you, let’s hop on a quick 10-minute call.

In that time, I’ll:

• Walk you through how the current rate impacts your buying or selling power 🏡

• Show what it looks like to wait versus act now — side by side 📊

• Give you a clear picture of the market without pressure, just facts and strategy 🤝

That’s it. No long lecture, no sales pitch — just the clarity you need to make a smart next move.

📌 Curious how home prices have really been holding since the peak of 2022?

The numbers may surprise you — and they tell an important story about where opportunities still exist in today’s market.

👉 I’ll break it down in the next active post (and I’m happy to share early if you reply to this email).