Table of Contents

• 🔹 Fed Cuts, but Mortgage Rates Spike….AGAIN

• 📉 Powell Reflects on the Fed's Role in the Housin …

• 📉 Don’t Be Fooled by the Headlines: Rates Are Not …

• 🔍 A Bit of Relief: Friday Rates Ticked Lower

• Final Thought

• 📊 Updated Mortgage Rate Snapshot (as of 10/31/25)

🔹 Fed Cuts, but Mortgage Rates Spike….AGAIN

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point cut to the federal funds rate, bringing it down to a target range of 3.75% to 4%. The vote was 10-2.

Yet mortgage rates moved higher immediately after, with the 30-year fixed average jumping from 6.13% to 6.33% in just 24 hours. Why?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that another rate cut in December is "not a foregone conclusion." He acknowledged stronger-than-expected economic growth, ongoing inflation pressures, and a softening labor market. This combination made investors reassess the Fed's long-term path, nudging bond yields (and mortgage rates) higher.

Meanwhile, Powell addressed rising layoffs in major U.S. companies like Amazon, Paramount, UPS, and Target, stating the Fed is watching this trend "very, very carefully."

📉 Powell Reflects on the Fed's Role in the Housing Boom

In a recent speech at the National Association for Business Economics, Powell acknowledged that the Fed likely kept buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for too long during the pandemic.

From 2020–2021, the Fed purchased hundreds of billions in MBS to support the market. Critics argue this artificially suppressed mortgage rates and fueled the pandemic housing boom. Powell pushed back slightly, suggesting other forces (like remote work, migration, and savings) had a greater effect.

Importantly, Powell ruled out buying MBS again as a tool to lower rates or support affordability:

📉 Don’t Be Fooled by the Headlines: Rates Are Not Falling

You may have seen headlines claiming mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in over a year—but that’s outdated and misleading.

Take a look at the chart below 👇

🟡 Yellow markers show when the Fed announced its rate cuts.

What happened next? Rates spiked, rising 0.20% in just 48 hours — the sharpest two-day jump since the Fed’s previous rate cut.

So why the confusion?

Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey (released Thursdays) is based on data from last Thursday through Wednesday morning — before the spike. So it reflected the low point, not the real-time increase.

The key takeaway: The Fed cut was already priced in. Rates moved in response to Powell's press conference and broader market signals.

This reminds us: mortgage rates react not to the Fed's decision itself, but to expectations about inflation, growth, and market risk.

🔍 A Bit of Relief: Friday Rates Ticked Lower

After Thursday's spike, Friday brought a slight win: rates dropped to 6.28% from 6.33%. It's still higher than the week before, but a bit of recovery.

Analysts note that Thursday's hike may have included a cushion that lenders removed Friday. Still, unless bonds improve by Monday, rates could adjust slightly higher to start next week.

In short:

• 🔼 Rates rose sharply post-Fed

• 🔹 Small Friday dip to 6.28%

• 📊 Still higher than last week's 6.19%

Final Thought

Despite what the headlines may say, this week confirmed what we've been watching closely:

• Markets move on expectations, not just headlines

• Powell's tone was more cautious than dovish

• Home prices are still high, but appreciation is slowing

If you're considering buying or selling, the right timing and strategy matter more than ever. Want help navigating it all?

📢 Let's talk. I'm here when you're ready.

📊 Updated Mortgage Rate Snapshot (as of 10/31/25)

30 Yr Fixed: 6.28% ↓ –0.05%

15 Yr Fixed: 5.81% ↓ –0.04%

FHA: 6.01% | Jumbo: 6.30% | VA: 6.03%

Here to serve,