Table of Contents

• 📌 The Fed Doesn’t Control Mortgage Rates

• 🏦 What Actually Happened

• ❌ Ignore the Headlines About “Lower Rates”

• ✅ The Bottom Line for Buyers & Sellers

• 🔑 Wrapping It Up

📌 The Fed Doesn’t Control Mortgage Rates

The Fed sets the overnight rate banks charge each other, not the 30-year fixed mortgage. Mortgage rates are tied to bonds — and bonds react to what the Fed says about the future, not just what they do today.

🏦 What Actually Happened

• Mortgage rates move daily, even hourly. They’re influenced by investor expectations around inflation, growth, and risk.

• The Fed cut yesterday — but markets had already priced it in. By the time Powell spoke, rates had already fallen in anticipation.

• His tone spooked bond investors. He framed the cut as “risk management,” downplayed big future cuts, and reminded everyone that more data could shift the plan. Translation: don’t expect a straight line down.

👉 The result? Lenders repriced mid-day, and mortgage rates jumped roughly 0.25% in just 48 hours — one of the sharpest two-day moves in months.

❌ Ignore the Headlines About “Lower Rates”

Some news outlets are reporting that “rates are lower” — but that’s based on Freddie Mac’s weekly average, which lags real-time markets by several days. If you call your lender today, you’ll find rates are actually higher than they were last week.

✅ The Bottom Line for Buyers & Sellers

• Buyers: Rates are still better than almost all of the past 11 months. If you’re waiting for “the bottom,” remember — by the time it hits the headlines, the market’s already moved.

• Sellers: Buyer budgets shrink as rates rise. Listing while affordability is stronger gives you a bigger pool of qualified buyers.

🔑 Wrapping It Up

Rates don’t always move the way the headlines suggest — and that’s exactly why it pays to have someone translate the noise into clear takeaways for your situation.

Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, a quick 10-minute strategy call can help you see:

✔️ What today’s rates actually mean for your budget or offers

✔️ How “wait vs. act now” might look in real numbers

✔️ Where the opportunities are before the next swing

📅 Reply with AM or PM and I’ll send you two time options. No pressure — just clarity.

PS - 📊 I know I said my next post would be about how home prices have held up since the 2022 peak — and I’ll get to that — but I wanted to share this quick update first since rates made such a big move. Stay tuned, that price breakdown is coming soon.