Table of Contents

• 💸 Current Market Reality: Affordability Is Quietl …

• 📊 What’s Happening with Home Prices?

• 🔍 How to Read These Charts:

  • 📈 Chart 1: Year-over-Year Price Change

  • 📉 Chart 2: Total Shift Since 2022 Peak

• ⚠️ Bought in 2021 or 2022?

• 💵 Housing Affordability: The Bigger Picture

• 🧠 Renting vs. Owning

• 📉 What About the Fed?

• 🎯 Final Thought

💸 Current Market Reality: Affordability Is Quietly Improving

While home prices in Redding have softened slightly since their 2022 peak, most of the pandemic-era gains are holding strong. And over the past two months, there’s been a surprisingly positive shift: affordability has actually improved.

Here’s what that looks like in real numbers:

• 📉 Monthly payments are now $200–$500 lower than they were just 60 days ago (thanks to small rate dips and seasonal price adjustments)

• 🏡 Buyers can often afford 10–20% more home for the same payment compared to late summer (be sure to talk with a local, knowledgeable lender)

These changes are pulling some would-be buyers off the sidelines — especially those who’ve been waiting for rates or prices to “correct.” They’re back in the office, running numbers, and writing offers.

📊 What’s Happening with Home Prices?

Let’s clear up the confusion: yes, home prices have softened a bit since their peak in 2022, but this is not a crash.

According to Zillow and ResiClub:

• 📈 From 2020–2022, home prices in Redding surged by over 28%

• 📉 Since the peak in mid-2022, they’ve pulled back just 4%

• ✅ In other words, most of the pandemic-era gains are holding strong

🔍 How to Read These Charts:

We’ve included two key visuals to help decode the market:

• Chart 1: “Home price YoY (Zillow)”

  Shows the year-over-year change in home values—how much prices have risen or fallen compared to the same month the year before. This helps track market momentum.

• Chart 2: “Home price shift since 2022 peak”

  Shows how far prices have moved from the absolute peak in 2022. It’s cumulative, so you can see the total change since then—not just a yearly change.

📈 Chart 1: Year-over-Year Price Change

📉 Chart 2: Total Shift Since 2022 Peak

⚠️ Bought in 2021 or 2022?

If you purchased at or near the market peak, it’s important to be realistic about potential returns.

• 💡 Sellers who bought in 2021–2022: Don’t expect a profit unless you’ve made significant upgrades or are in a particularly competitive niche. The market has come down since those peak prices.

• 📉 While the dip is modest (around –4% since peak), it’s enough to eat into short-term equity—especially after closing costs.

Still, selling may make sense for lifestyle, relocation, or financial reasons. Just go in with clear eyes and a solid pricing strategy.

💵 Housing Affordability: The Bigger Picture

Affordability remains one of the most pressing challenges in real estate right now.

A recent Zillow analysis found:

In fact, in some high-cost cities like San Francisco, even 0% mortgage rates wouldn’t make housing affordable due to high taxes and ongoing maintenance costs.

🧠 Renting vs. Owning

Even with today’s rates, homeownership still offers long-term financial advantages:

• 🔐 Fixed mortgage payments protect against inflation

• 📈 Rent continues to rise, often outpacing income growth

• 💰 Owning builds equity—and financial stability—over time

  While affordability is tight, owning a home is still one of the most reliable ways to build long-term wealth.

📉 What About the Fed?

Many were surprised recently when the Fed cut the overnight rate, but mortgage rates stayed high. Here’s why:

• 🏦 The Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates—those are tied to the bond market, inflation expectations, and global investor sentiment.

• 📉 Despite the rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s bearish tone signaled caution. He emphasized that inflation remains stubborn, and no aggressive easing is planned.

🎯 Final Thought

Housing markets don’t change overnight—but they do evolve. Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply watching from the sidelines, staying informed is your best strategy.

📩 Want a personalized analysis of your home’s value or neighborhood activity? I’d be happy to create a tailored CMA or buyer game plan.

📢 P.S. The Fed is announcing its latest decision today. Stay tuned — I’ll break down what it means for our local market and your next move.

Here to serve,