There's a $70,000 Gap Between What Sellers Are Asking and What's Selling

The data from Shasta County this spring is telling a clear story. Most sellers haven't heard it yet.

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Right now in Shasta County, the median active list price is $464,700. The median sold price is $395,000. That gap is nearly $70,000, and it tells you more about this market than any headline you will read this spring.

That spread does not exist because buyers have disappeared. It exists because a meaningful number of sellers are still pricing to a market that stopped being real two years ago.

On average, sellers are asking $464,700. On average, buyers are paying $395,000. That $70,000 gap does not close on its own. It closes when sellers decide to price for the market that exists today.

The Macro Picture Has Shifted

Nationally, Zillow's Market Heat Index puts the U.S. housing market at 55 this spring. That is actually a slight uptick from where things stood a year ago — but do not let that fool you. We are still nowhere near the 2021 and 2022 boom. The chart below puts that in perspective.

The Redding metro scores 63 today. That sounds reasonable until you see where we came from. Redding hit 98 at the height of the pandemic boom in 2021 and 2022. The map below shows exactly where Redding stands right now compared to every other metro in the country.

Take a look at the blue areas — those are the markets that have cooled the most. You will notice they are concentrated in the Sun Belt states: Florida, Texas, Arizona, and parts of the Southeast. Those markets saw some of the biggest surges during the pandemic as people relocated in large numbers, and they are now dealing with the most correction. Redding did not spike to those extremes, and we are not seeing that kind of pullback either. We are softer than the peak, but we are holding better than a lot of the country.

What the Local Numbers Are Showing

Rates have kept affordability tight. Buyers are doing the math before they ever step through a door. They know their monthly payment. When a home is priced above where comparable homes have sold, most buyers do not make a low offer to start a conversation. They just move to the next listing.

There are 532 active listings in Shasta County right now. Buyers have options, and they are using them. At the current pace of sales, that works out to about 3.1 months of inventory — still technically a seller-leaning market, but only for homes that are priced to match what buyers are actually willing to pay.

The homes going under contract are clustering around a median of $389,450 — well below the median of what sellers are actively asking, and very close to the $395,000 median of what has actually closed. That is not coincidence. Buyers are telling us exactly where they will transact.

The average closed sale this year ran 89 days from list to close. That is a patient buyer pool. They are comparing options carefully. And in too many cases, they are never going back to the homes that came out overpriced. Once a buyer mentally rules out a listing, it rarely gets a second look, even after a price cut.

Buyers are not confused about what homes are worth. They know exactly what they will pay. The listings sitting at 80-plus days are the ones that have not figured that out yet.

What I Keep Seeing in the Field

Sellers who want to price above my recommendation often say they want to leave room to negotiate. The logic is understandable. But it is not working in this market.

A $35,000 premium above comparable sales does not signal flexibility to today's buyers. It signals that the seller is out of touch with where things are. They do not make an offer. They do not ask questions. They just leave. There is no negotiation because there is no offer to begin with.

To put that in perspective, take a look at what this same market looked like in March 2021, the last time sellers could price with that kind of confidence.

Today's buyers are not making low offers on overpriced homes. They are just not calling. There is no negotiation to have if the buyer never shows up.

My Read on Where This Is Heading

The demand is real. Correctly priced homes are finding buyers. But the buyers who are active right now are the most payment-sensitive group I have worked with since before the pandemic.

They are not stretching. They are not gambling on a seller coming down. They are buying the homes that are already priced where the market actually is. Sellers who understand that are closing deals. Those holding out for 2021-era returns are watching the days pile up.

The sellers moving property right now priced based on what actually sold in the last 90 days. That discipline is the difference between a closed deal and a listing that sits.

If you have been thinking about selling, I am happy to put together a current number for you based on real comps. Just an honest look at where your home sits in this market right now. Reply to this email and I will take it from there.